The Latest NWS Regional Area Forecast Discussions


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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: ILM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Wilmington, NC

000
FXUS62 KILM 291753
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
151 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WARMTH
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST NEXT WEEK INCREASING
OUR RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 151 PM FRIDAY...THE FRONT HAS MOVED TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH
OF THE 925 MB THETA-E GRADIENT AND THE LATEST BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONFIRMS THE BEST MOISTURE IS ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE 14 UTC HRRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LUMBERTON TO
BURGAW LINE SO HAVE ADDED A 20 PERCENT POP IF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
DOES SNEAK FARTHER SOUTH BY THE END OF THE DAY.

CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WARRANTED FOR THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A RATHER WEAK SIGNAL FOR
MOSTLY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION AND HAVE MAINTAINED THESE MINIMAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST. PERHAPS A FEW MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ON
THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM NOW LIGHTING
UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MAKES IT EAST. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST/GUIDANCE WARRANTS ONLY TOKEN CHANGES AS UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS AND LOWER 90S INLAND CONTINUE. 70S FOR MORNING LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY RIDGING AS BASICALLY A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS. AN
ELONGATED RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TO WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
TRANSITIONING FROM A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE...NOTABLE FEATURES WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH CLOSER TO OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE
POPS ESSENTIALLY EVERY DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE SURFACE FEATURES GET AN ASSIST FROM THE UPPER
LEVELS. THE TIMING HOWEVER IS LOWER CONFIDENCE. WITH THE PERIOD
MODULATED BY HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...NO
SURPRISE THAT TEMPERATURES BOTH MAX AND MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BY JUST ABOUT A CATEGORY ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT THIS AM BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
WINDS BECOME S TO SSW WHILE COASTAL TERMINALS BECOME S TO SE.
SPEEDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 10 KT.  WITH THE S TO SE WINDS...AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT SUCH THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  FOR NOW...TAFS HAVE
MVFR FOG AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 500 FEET BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR FOG AFTER 06Z. BURN OFF IN THE AM WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT
OF THE FOG BUT VFR IS EXPECTED AFT 14Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR FOR OUR
NORTHERN TERMINALS SAT AFTERNOON.  INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 151 PM FRIDAY...CURRENTLY SEEING THE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION
ON THE NEAR SHORE BUOYS AND RADAR. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
BUOYS ARE SHOWING A 2 FOOT DOMINANT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL AS SE
SWELL MIXED IN. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET UNTIL MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT VEERING TO SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A
SYSTEM CREEPS IN FROM THE WEST BUT THIS WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL
TRANSITION. SWAN SEAS SHOW A CONSISTENT 1-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LATE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...NOW VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RAN
Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather