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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: ILM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Wilmington, NC

000
FXUS62 KILM 201849
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
149 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN A STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BACK
EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD ENTERING THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS DRYING WILL CONTINUE FROM
WEST TO EAST...REACHING THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME. THIS IS DOWN TO A SUBTLE BUT SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE WINDS IN THE 2-4K FT AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT THE LAYER ABOVE 800 MB DRIES OUT IN PART DUE TO DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE THE WEDGE HOLDS ON WITH LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW MAINTAINING A STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB REMAINS ELEVATED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY LAYER AS BEING SATURATED. WILL NOT CARRY
ANY MENTION OF DRIZZLE BUT MAY MENTION FOG EARLY SUN MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO NOT GO CALM BUT THEY WILL BE LIGHT. COMBINED
WITH RECENT PRECIP THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THOUGH LOWEST VIS WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3 OR 4
MILES...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUANCE OF DFA. LOWS END UP A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMO...A COMBINATION OF HIGHS 10 DEGREES TODAY BELOW
CLIMO...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND SUBTLE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
EXITING 5H SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER
WRN ZONES. COASTAL LOCALES WILL STAY QUITE CLOUDY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND THE MORE PROXIMAL NATURE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE COMES WASHING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION RIDES ATOP THE WEDGE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
APPEARS LIKELY AREA-WIDE MOST OF MONDAY. AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES
RAPIDLY UP MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP SHUTS OFF BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE. SUNDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. A SLIGHT ASSERTION OF THE WEDGE ON MONDAY COULD KNOCK
INLAND TEMPS DOWN KEEPING SOME PLACES FROM REACHING 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEDGE WILL HOLD ON WEAKLY ON
TUESDAY SOME SERIOUS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FLOODING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAKING
OUT THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE DEEPER ASCENT KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EVEN
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE REGION BUT THE
SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT MAY BE AS WELL. TIMING THESE FACTORS WILL BE
CRITICAL SINCE AS-IS IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION MIXED IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. BUT SHOULD
THE DRY SLOT MOVE IN MORE SLOWLY THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE AS BL WINDS CRANK UP TO 50KT OR SO. STRONG COLD AND
DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY EVENING LEADING TO A CHILLY
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT BUT A MODERATION BACK TO CLIMO EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE LATE WED FROPA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TEND
TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LEAST CONFIDENCE WILL BE KFLO/KLBT. IFR
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING EXCEPT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT
KFLO/KLBT. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL DEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NE WINDS TO 8-12 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY WED. VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT MAY BRIEFLY JUMP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. EXIT OF SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH REASSERTING ITSELF SO GRADIENT DOES NOT
CHANGE A LOT. 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
PUSH SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT...TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COAST
WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 2 FT CLOSER TO SHORE.

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSE TO SCEC ADVISORY DO NOT
PLAN TO RAISE ONE AT THIS TIME. MAINLY BECAUSE THE INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDER WHAT WAS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THE ALREADY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW...THOUGH THE EVENING SHIFT MAY DECIDE TO RAISE ONE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL BE STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE LANDMASS. THE RESULTING NE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
TYPICAL AS WILL SEAS...BOTH PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORY/CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES. THE FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO THE FORECAST ZONES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND WILL GROW LIGHTER AND THE DIRECTION
FORECAST MAY GET IFFY DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT GETS. BY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO OFFSHORE AND INCREASE BY A FEW
KNOTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THOUGH QUIET TO START CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER
THE LANDMASS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MARCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL RAMP UP WIND AND SEAS LATE TUESDAY BUT MOSTLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. WINDS LIKELY NOT TO SLACKEN
MUCH WITH WED AFTERNOON FROPA, JUST A SHARP VEER IN DIRECTION.
FLAGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather