The Latest NWS Regional Area Forecast Discussions


Enter the NWS Weather Forecast Office [WFO] Code Below


NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: ILM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Wilmington, NC

000
FXUS62 KILM 281528
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST BY BROAD
TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. CIRRUS WILL FIRST SPREAD OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO THICKEN. MOST AREAS ARE
CLEARER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING SO DID BUMP HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE INCREASED SUNSHINE...BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL END UP ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS/INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE 850MB
RIDGE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE 300-305K LAYER WILL LOWER CLOUD BASES TO 3K-5K FT BY EVENING.
LAYER BELOW 3K FT WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

LATE IN THE PERIOD THE LOW LEVELS DO MOISTEN UP AND IT CONTINUES
TO LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME WITH VERY LIGHT
PRECIP EARLY SUN MORNING AND TEMPS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR NUMEROUS REASONS. THE AMOUNT OF LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE MINIMAL WITH A HUNDREDTH OR TWO THE HIGHEST
CONCEIVABLE AMOUNTS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE HELPING TO COOL/DRY
THE SURFACE LAYER AS THE PRECIP IS FALLING BUT T/TD SPREAD REMAINS
A QUESTION. CURRENTLY DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN FORECAST
WHILE TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST. SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS
TODAY ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD LEAD TO WET BULB TEMPS JUST
ABOVE FREEZING INSTEAD OF JUST BELOW. SO WHILE EVAPORATION
COOLING WILL TRY TO DROP SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING NOT SURE IF
IT WILL HAPPEN. BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ACROSS
INLAND SC COUNTIES WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES ACROSS INLAND NC.
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE SITUATION BUT AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL [PRODUCE NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TOWARDS THE ENDS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LIKELY
AS LIGHT RAIN BREAKS OUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR SUNDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS WITH NEARSHORE
GRADIENT REMAINING PINCHED. 20 TO 25 KT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY WILL
START TO EASE UP LATE TONIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP
AND GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
IN RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather