The Latest NWS Regional Area Forecast Discussions


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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: ILM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Wilmington, NC

000
FXUS62 KILM 311123
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
623 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAINFALL...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM SUNDAY...QUIET WX AND COLD AND DRY DURING THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE CONSISTING OF A MODIFIED
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIRMASS AFFECTS THE FA. ITS BASICALLY A TEMP
FORECAST WITH NO SENSIBLE WX TO TALK ABOUT. EVEN FOG IS OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 15 DEGREES THIS
MORNING...AND AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAMBUFR
HOURLY SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWS AROUND 0.15 INCHES TODAY...AND
INCREASING TO AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK. THUS
A SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD AT TIMES. THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT IS MAINLY IN THE MID-LEVELS VIA MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS. THUS...IF ANYTHING...THE POTENTIAL SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FROM
TOTALLY BOTTOMING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET DUE
TO THE SFC BASED INVERSION FORMATION UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING OVERHEAD. ONCE THOSE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...THE TEMP CURVE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AFTER THE INITIAL HARD FALL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN ELONGATED MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY AROUND 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
POSSIBLE RAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM SATURDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. LATEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN IN
THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. DO EXPECT
WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS DURING MIDDAY AS THE INLAND
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WILL START OUT WITH SCA CONDITIONS...AND
MAKE THE CALL OF WHETHER EXTENDING THE SCA AT THE NEXT UPDATE AT 6AM
OR JUST LOWERING IT TO A SCEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SFC
PG AND CAA HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW 30 KT GUSTS EARLIER. OVERALL TREND SHOULD SEE THE
SFC PG RELAXING AND CAA BECOMING NEUTRAL AS THIS MORNING AND DAY
PROGRESSES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WINDS
LIKELY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD. WAVEWATCH3 INDICATES SIG. SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 1 FT
TONIGHT. WILL NOT BE THAT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WILL DROP THEM TO 1 TO 3
FT TONIGHT...WITH THE 3 FOOTER ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS OFF CAPE
FEAR.


SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather