NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 192338
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo, that is located several hundred
miles northeast of Newfoundland.

A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores.  This system is
producing gale-force winds, and the low could gradually acquire
subtropical characteristics during the next several days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)
...GONZALO BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 19
 the center of GONZALO was located near 51.6, -41.8
 with movement ENE at 52 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 972 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Public Advisory Number 30
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 192038
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.6N 41.8W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM NE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 51.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR
52 MPH...83 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STEADY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GONZALO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Forecast Advisory Number 30
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 192038
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N  41.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  45 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 160SE  90SW  40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 270SE 180SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 240SE 540SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N  41.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.7N  45.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 53.6N  31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT...  0NE 180SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 300SE 270SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 56.5N  15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 320SE 360SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 58.5N   1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 320SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 180SE 420SW 380NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 64.5N   1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 360SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 540SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.6N  41.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GONZALO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 30
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 192039
TCDAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

The combined effect of sea-surface temperatures around 10C and
southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 40 kt has finally
taken its toll on Gonzalo. The upper-level circulation is tilted
more than 100 nmi to the northeast of the low-level circulation
center, and an abundance of cold-air stratocumulus clouds has
wrapped all the way around the entire low-level circulation. Gonzalo
looks like a frontal low in satellite imagery, suggesting that the
system has completed its transformation into an extratropical
cyclone. The initial intensity has been decreased to 70 kt, which is
consistent with various decay models. Only gradual weakening is
expected during the next 48 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 060/45 kt. Gonzalo has turned toward
the east-northeast, and that general motion is expected for the next
24-36 hours, after which the cyclone is forecast to slow down
considerably and turn northward and be absorbed by a larger low
pressure system north of the British Isles by 72 hours. The NHC
track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and
is near the latest forecast guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

This is the last NHC advisory on Gonzalo.  Additional information on
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 51.6N  41.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  20/0600Z 53.6N  31.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/1800Z 56.5N  15.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  21/0600Z 58.5N   1.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/1800Z 64.5N   1.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 192038
PWSAT3
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014               
2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 51.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                    
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  



Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Graphics



5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 20:40:07 GMT

 
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 21:04:44 GMT