000
ABNT20 KNHC 081730
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and 
on Hurricane Milton, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico. 

Southwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located just northeast of the 
northwestern Bahamas is producing gale-force winds.  This system 
could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics over the 
next day or so while the low moves northeastward to east- 
northeastward around 15 mph.  Upper-level winds are likely to 
increase by Wednesday night, which should end any chances for 
further development.  Additional information on this system, 
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in 
a day or two.  Afterward, environmental conditions appear only 
marginally favorable for some limited development of this system 
while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern 
tropical Atlantic, moving near the Cabo Verde Islands late Thursday 
through Friday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online 
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Hurricane for

• Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132024)
  ...LESLIE STRENGTHENS BACK INTO A HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 8 the center of Leslie was located near 20.0, -46.4 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Leslie

• Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 26
  Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 082031 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 ...LESLIE STRENGTHENS BACK INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 46.4W ABOUT 1490 MI...2400 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 46.4 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn to the north Wednesday night and to the northeast by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Wednesday night. Weakening is expected to begin Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen ]]>
• Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 26
  Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024

  
  000
  WTNT23 KNHC 082031
  TCMAT3
   
  HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024
  2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024
   
  HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  46.4W AT 08/2100Z
  POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
   
  PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  12 KT
   
  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
  64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
  50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
  34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.
  12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
  WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
  MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
   
  REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  46.4W AT 08/2100Z
  AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  46.1W
   
  FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.0N  47.5W
  MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
  64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
  50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
  34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.1N  48.6W
  MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
  64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
  50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
  34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.0N  49.4W
  MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
  64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
  50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
  34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N  50.1W
  MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
  50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
  34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.5N  49.8W
  MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
  50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
  34 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.4N  48.3W...POST-TROPICAL
  MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
  34 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW   0NW.
   
  EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
  ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
   
  OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 31.5N  42.3W...POST-TROPICAL
  MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
  34 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.
   
  OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 34.6N  34.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
   
  REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N  46.4W
   
  NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
   
  $$
  FORECASTER HAGEN
   
   
  

• Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 26
  Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024

  
  000
  WTNT43 KNHC 082033
  TCDAT3
   
  Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  26
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
  500 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024
  
  Leslie appears to have made a bit of a comeback today.  A couple of 
  fortuitous microwave images from the past few hours show a closed 
  eyewall.  The latest subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and 
  SAB range from 55-77 kt, and recent objective estimates range from 
  65-74 kt.  The microwave passes, the objective intensity estimates, 
  and the TAFB current intensity number all suggest that Leslie is a 
  hurricane.  Therefore, the initial intensity is bumped back up to 
  65 kt.
  
  The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 305/12.  A gradual 
  turn to the north is expected in a day or two as Leslie rounds the 
  southwestern and western side of a subtropical ridge.  After that, 
  as Leslie gains latitude late this week, the cyclone will 
  increasingly come under the influence of the mid-latitude 
  westerlies, causing a turn toward the northeast.  Very minor changes 
  have been made to the official track forecast, which lies near the 
  various consensus guidance.
  
  Leslie is forecast to remain in an environment of very weak vertical 
  wind shear for another 24-36 h.  Given the closed eyewall observed 
  on recent microwave images, Leslie may be able to prevent dry 
  environmental air from entraining into its inner-core during that 
  time.  Leslie will be traveling over Kirk's cold wake over the next 
  day or so, which will limit the instability.  The hurricane should 
  remain fairly steady during this time, and the NHC forecast is near 
  the high end of the intensity guidance during the first 24 h.  By 36 
  h, models show Leslie running into a wall of strong northerly wind 
  shear, which is forecast to cause Leslie to decouple and degenerate 
  to a post-tropical cyclone by this weekend.
   
  
  FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
   
  INIT  08/2100Z 20.0N  46.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
   12H  09/0600Z 21.0N  47.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
   24H  09/1800Z 22.1N  48.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
   36H  10/0600Z 23.0N  49.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
   48H  10/1800Z 24.0N  50.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
   60H  11/0600Z 25.5N  49.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
   72H  11/1800Z 27.4N  48.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
   96H  12/1800Z 31.5N  42.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  120H  13/1800Z 34.6N  34.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   
  $$
  Forecaster Hagen
   
  

• Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
  Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024

  
  000
  FONT13 KNHC 082031
  PWSAT3
                                                                      
  HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  26                
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024               
  2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024                                            
                                                                      
  AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
  20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
  65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                      
  Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
     ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
     EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
     CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                      
  WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                      
  CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
     ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
     ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
     ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
  FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
      OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
          AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
     (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
          18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
  THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
  64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                      
                                                                      
    - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                      
                 FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
    TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
  PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
               06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                      
  FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                      
  $$                                                                  
  FORECASTER HAGEN                                                    
  

• Hurricane Leslie Graphics
  
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 20:34:38 GMT
  
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 20:34:38 GMT

Hurricane for

• Summary for Hurricane Milton (AT4/AL142024)
  ...MILTON BACK TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH... ...FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 the center of Milton was located near 22.7, -87.5 with movement ENE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 918 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 165 mph.

Hurricane Milton

• Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 15
  Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 082053 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 ...MILTON BACK TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH... ...FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 87.5W ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning along the U.S. east coast has been extended southward to Sebastian Inlet, Florida, and northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been extended southward to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line. The Tropical Storm Warning along the U.S. east coast has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from Celestun to west of Dzilam, has changed the Hurricane Warning from Dzilam to Rio Lagartos to a Tropical Storm Warning, and has discontinued the Hurricane Watch from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dzilam to Cancun Mexico * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 87.5 West. Milton wobbled earlier today, but the longer-term motion is toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin tonight and continue through early Thursday. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 918 mb (27.11 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Yankeetown, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in the warning areas in Mexico this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida around midday Wednesday, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the extreme northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through early Thursday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
• Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 15
  Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024

  
  884 
  WTNT24 KNHC 082053
  TCMAT4
   
  HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142024
  2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024
   
  HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  87.5W AT 08/2100Z
  POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
   
  PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  75 DEGREES AT   8 KT
   
  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  918 MB
  EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
  64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
  50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
  34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  80SW 120NW.
  12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 300SW 300NW.
  WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
  MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
   
  REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  87.5W AT 08/2100Z
  AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  88.1W
   
  FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.8N  86.4W
  MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
  64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
  50 KT... 60NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
  34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 120NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.6N  84.7W
  MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
  64 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  40NW.
  50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
  34 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.2N  82.8W
  MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
  64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
  50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
  34 KT...230NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.1N  80.7W...INLAND
  MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
  64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
  50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
  34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.6N  77.9W...OVER WATER
  MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
  50 KT... 90NE  50SE  40SW  90NW.
  34 KT...270NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N  75.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
  50 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
  34 KT...180NE 130SE 130SW 180NW.
   
  EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
  ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
   
  OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.6N  68.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
  34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
   
  OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 31.8N  60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
  34 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
   
  REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N  87.5W
   
  INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/0000Z
   
  NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
   
  $$
  FORECASTER BERG
   
   
  
  

• Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 15
  Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

  
  000
  WTNT44 KNHC 082054
  TCDAT4
   
  Hurricane Milton Discussion Number  15
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
  400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024
   
  The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters found that Milton's central
  pressure had fallen to 923 mb in the last pass they made through
  the eye a few hours ago.  The satellite presentation has improved
  since that time, with a thick ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a
  10-mile-wide eye.  This pattern yielded a T7.0/140 kt from TAFB,
  with several of the objective satellite estimates between 140 and
  145 kt.  Milton has again become a category 5 hurricane, with
  maximum winds estimated to be 145 kt.  Another Air Force mission is
  entering Milton as we speak.
   
  Milton wobbled a bit to the southeast today, but the longer-term
  12-hour motion is east-northeastward (075/8 kt).  Milton is forecast
  to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves
  between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near
  the Greater Antilles.  Because of the wobble, the track guidance
  has been initialized a bit to the south of where many of the raw
  model fields think the hurricane was centered at 1800 UTC, and this
  has caused the entire guidance envelope to shift a bit south on
  this cycle.  It is still critical to remember that even at 36 hours
  (around the time of potential landfall), NHC's track forecasts
  can be off by an average of 60 n mi, which means we still can't
  pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if additional
  wobbles occur in the short term.  After landfall, Milton is
  forecast to cross Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on
  Thursday.
   
  Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it
  moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of
  Florida.  Stronger vertical shear is expected to increase in about
  24 hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will likely not
  be enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane
  when it reaches shore.  Additionally, the first stages of
  extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching
  the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the
  rate of weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top
  end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models,
  since these models should have a better handle on a potential
  positive trough interaction.
   
  Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida.
  In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
  tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
  makes landfall.  In addition, the stronger-than-normal winds could
  occur on the northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be
  interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical
  transition.  Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
  rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone.  This is a
  very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely
  follow orders from their local emergency management officials.
  Evacuations and other preparations should be completed today.
  Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive
  hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.
   
   
  Key Messages:
   
  1. A large area of destructive storm surge,  with highest
  inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the
  west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula.  If you are in the
  Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening
  situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local
  officials.  There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on
  Wednesday.
   
  2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
  the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
  Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
  Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
  gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
  Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for
  long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight.
   
  3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
  brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
  flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
  areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
  overall flood threat.
   
  4. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge with
  destructive waves will continue across portions of the northern
  coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.
   
   
  FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
   
  INIT  08/2100Z 22.7N  87.5W  145 KT 165 MPH
   12H  09/0600Z 23.8N  86.4W  145 KT 165 MPH
   24H  09/1800Z 25.6N  84.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
   36H  10/0600Z 27.2N  82.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
   48H  10/1800Z 28.1N  80.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
   60H  11/0600Z 28.6N  77.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
   72H  11/1800Z 29.0N  75.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
   96H  12/1800Z 30.6N  68.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  120H  13/1800Z 31.8N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
   
  $$
  Forecaster Berg
   
  

• Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
  Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024

  
  000
  FONT14 KNHC 082053
  PWSAT4
                                                                      
  HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15                
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142024               
  2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024                                            
                                                                      
  AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
  22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
  145 KTS...165 MPH...270 KM/H.                                       
                                                                      
  Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
     ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
     EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
     CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                      
  WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                      
  CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
     ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
     ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
     ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
  FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
      OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
          AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
     (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
          18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
  THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
  64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                      
                                                                      
    - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                      
                 FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
    TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
  PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
               06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                      
  FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                      
  BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
   
  LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
   
  MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
   
  CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
   
  BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
   
  SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
   
  KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  11(18)   3(21)   X(21)   X(21)
  KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
   
  WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
   
  MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  17(25)   3(28)   X(28)   X(28)
  MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
   
  JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
   
  GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  12(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
  GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
   
  DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  34(46)   5(51)   X(51)   X(51)
  DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   3(20)   X(20)   X(20)
  DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
   
  THE VILLAGES   34  X   1( 1)  31(32)  23(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)
  THE VILLAGES   50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  15(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
  THE VILLAGES   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
   
  ORLANDO FL     34  X   1( 1)  34(35)  37(72)   3(75)   X(75)   X(75)
  ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  30(38)   3(41)   X(41)   X(41)
  ORLANDO FL     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
   
  COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   2( 2)  40(42)  42(84)   6(90)   X(90)   X(90)
  COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  45(53)   8(61)   X(61)   X(61)
  COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  27(28)   6(34)   X(34)   X(34)
   
  PATRICK AFB    34  X   2( 2)  40(42)  42(84)   6(90)   X(90)   X(90)
  PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  46(54)   7(61)   X(61)   X(61)
  PATRICK AFB    64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  26(28)   6(34)   X(34)   X(34)
   
  FT PIERCE FL   34  X   2( 2)  39(41)  41(82)   4(86)   X(86)   X(86)
  FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  37(43)   8(51)   X(51)   X(51)
  FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   5(25)   X(25)   X(25)
   
  W PALM BEACH   34  X   2( 2)  32(34)  31(65)   4(69)   X(69)   X(69)
  W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)   3(23)   X(23)   X(23)
  W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
   
  FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   3( 3)  27(30)  22(52)   2(54)   1(55)   X(55)
  FT LAUDERDALE  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
  FT LAUDERDALE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
   
  MIAMI FL       34  X   2( 2)   9(11)   9(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
  MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
   
  HOMESTEAD ARB  34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   7(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
   
  MARATHON FL    34  X   6( 6)  17(23)   5(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
  MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
   
  KEY WEST FL    34  1  10(11)  17(28)   4(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)
  KEY WEST FL    50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
   
  NAPLES FL      34  1  13(14)  62(76)   6(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
  NAPLES FL      50  X   1( 1)  30(31)   5(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
  NAPLES FL      64  X   X( X)  11(11)   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
   
  FT MYERS FL    34  X   5( 5)  66(71)   8(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)
  FT MYERS FL    50  X   1( 1)  30(31)  10(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
  FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)  12(12)   6(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
   
  VENICE FL      34  1  19(20)  74(94)   3(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
  VENICE FL      50  X   2( 2)  72(74)  10(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
  VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)  52(52)  11(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
   
  TAMPA FL       34  X   7( 7)  77(84)   8(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
  TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)  51(51)  16(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)
  TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)  28(28)  18(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)
   
  CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   3( 3)  40(43)  13(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
  CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)  10(10)   8(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
  CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
   
  TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
   
  ST MARKS FL    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
   
  APALACHICOLA   34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
   
  GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   4( 4)  12(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
  GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
   
  PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
   
  DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
   
  ALBANY GA      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
   
  DOTHAN AL      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
   
  GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
   
  GFMX 280N 890W 34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
   
  BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
   
  GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   9( 9)  32(41)  11(52)   X(52)   X(52)
  GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)
  GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
   
  NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   7(17)   1(18)   X(18)
   
  ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
   
  GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
   
  SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
   
  CP SAN ANTONIO 34  6   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
   
  HAVANA         34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
   
  ISLE OF PINES  34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
   
  CIENFUEGOS     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
   
  $$                                                                  
  FORECASTER BERG                                                     
  

• Hurricane Milton Graphics
  
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 20:56:15 GMT
  
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 20:56:15 GMT
• Hurricane Milton Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
  
  
  Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 15:29:37 GMT
• Hurricane Milton Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
  
  
  Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 16:15:34 GMT
• Hurricane Milton Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
  
  
  Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 20:55:26 GMT

Issued at  458 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Issued at  501 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Issued at  503 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Issued at  507 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Issued at  510 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Issued at  514 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Issued at  514 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024